India to invest $20 trillion to achieve net zero by 2070

“We developed an in-house India Energy model – identifying needs for solar, batteries, and hydrogen – to estimate the total capex needed to achieve net zero, which we estimate at $20 trillion over the next 50 years,” research firm UBS said in a report.

Given that India is one of the top five importers of oil, LNG, and coal, investors have argued over the implications for global commodities since India pledged last year to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.

“In that period, we expect India to stop importing 3%/3% of current global coal/oil demand and expand its solar generation capacity by 100x." "By 2040, we see global trade flows and supply chains rearranging to accommodate India’s changing status from a primary energy importer to an exporter of renewable supplies,” the report said. India's primary energy demand is expected to nearly double by 2070, with renewables accounting for 72% of total energy demand by 2070, up from 1% in 2019, with bioenergy accounting for 9% and green hydrogen accounting for 9%.

“We estimate $20 trillion in capex to achieve this—1.2 per cent of GDP over the period—mainly led by private investment." But in the short to medium term, India’s dependence on fossil fuels will rise, peaking around 2040, further complicating the dynamics of the global energy transition, "the report said.

Significantly, India is predicted to overtake China as the largest oil growth market during this era, and ongoing import dependence would put sustained pressure on India's import bill, with a current account deficit lasting at least until 2045.

Regarding whether India can achieve self-sufficiency in solar cells, batteries, and electrolyzers, the report notes that, while India's entry into solar PV and battery manufacturing is different than China's, past experience—for example, in 4G implementation—suggests that fast tracking is possible, assuming supportive government policies, incentives, and large corporates back the transition.

“India’s 265 GW/1000GW of renewable installations and 600/7400GWh of battery additions by 2030/40E could support domestic manufacturers, as we expect Indian utilities and OEMs to invest $2 trillion by 2040,” the report stated.

India can manufacture 80 GW of solar PV and 190 GWh of batteries per year by 2030, putting it among the world's top three producers. If the country's solar PV manufacturing capacity target is met, it might reorient the country as a net exporter rather than a net importer in the coming decades.

See also:
Construction groups unite to hit net zero target with carbon reporting rules
Australia could achieve net-zero emission by 2050