Oil Prices Rise Amid Iran-Israel Tensions Despite Record U.S. Output

Analyst Ole Hvalbye from SEB Research commented that any Iranian response might be restrained, similar to Israel's limited strike from the previous weekend, suggesting that such actions are likely meant to demonstrate strength rather than escalate into full-scale warfare. Tensions between Iran and Israel have intensified amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza, with previous Iranian air attacks on Israel largely repelled with minor damage.

Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produced about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and is projected to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, an increase from 1.4 million bpd in 2023.

In addition to geopolitical factors, oil prices received support from expectations that OPEC+ might postpone its planned December increase in oil production due to concerns over weak demand and rising supply. A decision could be announced as early as next week.

While OPEC+ weighs its production strategy, U.S. oil companies, including Exxon Mobil and Chevron, reported record high global and domestic output, respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that U.S. drillers extracted a record 13.5 million bpd of oil this week, reinforcing projections for continued growth in annual production.

In related economic news, U.S. job growth stagnated in October due to labor strikes and the impact of hurricanes, complicating the labor market's outlook ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Economists anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Thursday, a move that could stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand.