Copper Prices Hit Record Above $13,000 per Tonne

Analysts said higher prices are required to encourage significant new mining activity, as many existing copper mines have been operating at or beyond their original design capacity for extended periods. This has increased the risk of disruptions, highlighted by recent incidents at major operations such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and labour-related stoppages at the Mantoverde copper and gold mine in northern Chile.

Geopolitical uncertainty has also added to market volatility. Developments in Venezuela and broader concerns over the security of critical mineral supply chains have intensified the global race to secure key resources. Market participants noted that copper and other metals are increasingly being viewed through the lens of supply-chain security in a changing global order.

According to industry estimates, refined copper production is expected to total about 26.9 million tonnes this year, pointing to a supply deficit of roughly 308,000 tonnes. Analysts said investment in the next generation of copper mines will only materialise if prices remain elevated, with breakeven levels for new projects seen above $13,000 per tonne.

Further supporting prices is the prospect of tariffs on copper imports into the United States, which has led traders and producers to ship large volumes of the metal into the country in advance of any potential levies. As a result, copper stocks in US-based warehouses have risen sharply in recent months.

However, some analysts cautioned that current prices may not be fully supported by market fundamentals, noting that significant quantities of copper are held both on and off exchanges in the US, suggesting the global market may have been in surplus last year despite recent supply disruptions.